Manhattan Beach Price Divergence
Why Some Homes Sit While Others Sell in a Week
If you only read the headlines, you might think the Manhattan Beach real estate market is cooling off. With median prices down year-over-year and homes sitting on the market for over two months, it’s easy to assume that the frenetic energy of the past few years has finally given way to a more subdued, buyer-friendly environment. [1]
But that’s only half the story.
On the ground, a different reality is playing out. While some properties linger, others are attracting multiple offers and selling in a matter of days—sometimes for hundreds of thousands of dollars over the asking price. [2] Just last week, a Hill Section home received a staggering 18 offers and sold for $1.35 million above its initial list price. [3]
Welcome to the Manhattan Beach two-speed market. It’s a market of divergence, where two parallel realities coexist: one for homes that are priced, positioned, and prepared perfectly, and another for everything else. Understanding this split is the single most important factor for any buyer or seller in the South Bay today.
The Tale of Two Markets: What the Data Reveals
At first glance, the aggregate data paints a picture of a market taking a breather. According to Redfin, the median sale price in January 2026 was $3.1 million, a 10.8% decrease from the previous year. The median time a home spent on the market was 64 days—a figure that feels sluggish compared to the recent past. [1]
But this top-line number is misleading. It masks the intense velocity happening in a specific segment of the market. While the median is 64 days, Redfin’s own data shows that “hot homes” are going pending in around 35 days. [1] And hyper-local analysis from MB Confidential reveals an even starker contrast, with several recent sales going into escrow with zero or single-digit days on the market. [3]
Consider these recent examples from the first half of February:
This isn’t a unified market; it’s a bifurcated one. So, what separates the homes that sell in a weekend from those that sit for a season? It comes down to three key differentiators.
1. The Unforgiving Nature of Pricing Strategy
In a market where buyers are contending with mortgage rates around 6%, there is zero room for aspirational pricing. [4] The single greatest factor determining whether a home lands in the “fast” or “slow” market is its initial list price. Overprice your home, even by a small margin, and you risk being ignored.
As local brokerage Scherb Homes Group recently noted, “Homes that are priced right and prepared well are still moving; everything else is negotiating.” [5] The data confirms this. Of the homes that closed in early February, the ones that sold fastest, like 1525 10th Street (0 DOM), sold at their full asking price. Those that lingered, like 1431 10th Street (33 DOM), sold for nearly 8% below their starting price. [3]
Sellers who price their homes to generate immediate interest and multiple offers are not “leaving money on the table.” They are creating the competitive tension needed to achieve a premium price in the shortest possible time. The most expensive pricing strategy in real estate is starting too high.
2. The Power of Turnkey Condition
Today’s buyers are discerning and time-crunched. They are willing to pay a premium for homes that are move-in ready, beautifully staged, and impeccably maintained. The properties that fly off the market are the ones that look and feel like a finished product, not a project.
This is why we’re seeing intense competition for “well-located, turnkey homes.” [5] Buyers can visualize their life in the home immediately, without the mental and financial burden of future renovations. A home’s condition is a critical part of its positioning. It signals value and quality, justifying the price and creating the fear of loss that drives quick, strong offers.
3. The Influence of Cash and Rate Sensitivity
The divergence is also fueled by who the buyer is. A significant portion of the market—nearly 47% of Manhattan Beach sales in the latter half of 2025 were cash purchases—is less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. [6] These well-capitalized buyers can act decisively when they see value, creating a competitive floor for prime properties.
For the majority of buyers who are financing their purchase, the math is different. A 6% mortgage rate means every dollar of the purchase price matters. These buyers are highly selective and will only compete for properties that are priced fairly and meet all their needs. They will not overpay for a home that is compromised on location, condition, or price.
This creates the two-speed dynamic: cash and well-qualified buyers battle for the best-prepared, best-priced homes, while financed buyers cautiously circle the properties that feel even slightly overpriced for the current rate environment.
What This Means For You
For Sellers: The lesson is clear. You have one chance to make a first impression online. The success of your sale is determined in the first two weeks. The key is to partner with an agent who will give you a data-driven, unvarnished pricing strategy and a clear plan to present your home in its best possible light. It’s not about finding a buyer; it’s about creating an environment where multiple buyers feel compelled to compete.
For Buyers: Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by headlines about a “cooling” market. The best homes are still moving at lightning speed. Get your financing pre-approved, be crystal clear on your priorities, and be ready to act with conviction when the right opportunity arises. In this market, hesitation on a well-priced home means watching someone else move into your dream house.
Navigating this complex, two-speed market requires more than just access to listings. It requires a deep understanding of the forces shaping value on a block-by-block basis. It requires strategy, perspective, and the ability to see the story behind the data.
References
[1] Redfin. (2026, February). 90266 Housing Market: House Prices & Trends. https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/90266/housing-market
[2] Fratello, D. (2026, February 17). 18 Offers, A Hill Section High – Manhattan Beach Market Update for 2/15/26. MB Confidential. https://www.mbconfidential.com/blog/manhattan-beach-market-update-for-21526.html
[3] Fratello, D. (2026, February 17). MB Pending/Sold as of 2/15/26. MB Confidential. https://www.mbconfidential.com/data/manhattan-beach-real-estate-pendingsold-as-of-21526.html
[4] Freddie Mac. (2026, February 19). Mortgage Rates Steady. https://themortgagereports.com/mortgage-rates-now/mortgage-rates-today-february-19-2026
[5] Scherb, C. (2026, January 26). House the market? Scherb Homes Group - January 2026. Scherb Homes. https://www.scherbhomes.com/news/january2026
[6] Instagram. (2026, January 30). 37.1% cash purchases What does...https://www.instagram.com/p/DUJMrHAj89y/